Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 2.552308e-01 0.300615 0.348769 0.403381 0.463313 0.526812 0.598905
2025-02-09 1.835088e-01 0.243271 0.311303 0.393297 0.488293 0.593816 0.718825
2025-02-16 1.397018e-01 0.207959 0.290984 0.396569 0.524554 0.672167 0.852798
2025-02-23 1.040700e-01 0.175248 0.267887 0.391929 0.548622 0.735396 0.970305
2025-03-02 7.273962e-02 0.141318 0.237527 0.373441 0.552289 0.772263 1.056033
2025-03-09 5.603684e-02 0.124241 0.226468 0.377444 0.582652 0.841188 1.181079
2025-03-16 4.015210e-02 0.104296 0.207974 0.368581 0.594298 0.885601 1.275738
2025-03-23 3.318310e-02 0.097715 0.208138 0.385132 0.639678 0.973550 1.426209
2025-03-30 2.470514e-02 0.085717 0.197786 0.384820 0.661000 1.029881 1.536808
2025-04-06 1.839179e-02 0.075940 0.189425 0.386209 0.683903 1.088042 1.650087
2025-04-13 1.434755e-02 0.069823 0.186367 0.395113 0.717253 1.160361 1.782486
2025-04-20 1.146128e-02 0.065482 0.185791 0.407537 0.755653 1.239850 1.925102
2025-04-27 9.007889e-03 0.061417 0.185442 0.420649 0.796111 1.323951 2.076647
2025-05-04 5.987288e-03 0.053545 0.176219 0.417994 0.812494 1.374814 2.184483
2025-05-11 4.287570e-03 0.049126 0.173403 0.425911 0.844940 1.448503 2.323892
2025-05-18 2.611177e-03 0.042844 0.165298 0.423645 0.861161 1.499218 2.432553
2025-05-25 1.107943e-03 0.034117 0.149436 0.405637 0.851384 1.512025 2.489044
2025-06-01 6.052263e-04 0.030796 0.146169 0.410710 0.878370 1.578027 2.619287
2025-06-08 1.852221e-04 0.025474 0.136198 0.401822 0.881950 1.609565 2.701744
2025-06-15 1.068677e-04 0.024913 0.139619 0.419614 0.929958 1.707064 2.877211
2025-06-22 1.832250e-05 0.021730 0.134424 0.419449 0.947728 1.759810 2.990252
2025-06-29 2.593789e-07 0.019127 0.130289 0.421014 0.968220 1.816676 3.109462
2025-07-06 NaN 0.017767 0.129956 0.430490 1.002315 1.894271 3.258615